Predictions for Kindle 2.0

kindle-2

Kindle 2.0: Featuring Amazon's patented UglyBrick design (photo credit BoyGeniusReport.com)

Kindle 2.0 will most likely be announced during a press conference on Monday.

I really hope Amazon has pulled off some revolutionary design advances, but I’m not holding my breath. So far, no manufacturer has come up with a game-changing, has-it-all ereader design, and I don’t think that’ll change Monday.

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the new features Kindle 2.0 will (and won’t) have.

Kindle 2.0 WILL have:

  • Better page-turn buttons: People don’t like the buttons and for good reason. Not only are they annoying, their size is unnecessary. I imagine Amazon started working on new buttons approximately the day after they released Kindle 1.0.
  • The same ugly design: Let’s face it, looks aren’t a deal-breaker for most ereader buyers, and if there’s not a great demand for a change, I don’t think they’ll revamp completely. I just hope  they put the time that would’ve gone into a redesign into something worthwhile.
  • A better battery: Why the hell not?
  • USB charging: I saw this on the original BoyGeniusReport leak, and I believe it because it’s a stupid idea. If your device can get its own content, why make it a requirement to plug it into a computer ever? I hope they at least have a slick adapter like Apple’s.
  • A better contrast ratio: I think Amazon’s going to lean on readability as their physical difference from the Sony Reader. This means sacrificing content management ability for contrast ratio.
  • Open PDF support: It’s the thing people want most, and I don’t think Amazon will ignore it completely. However, they won’t release their stranglehold on epublishing by letting you download secure PDFs (i.e. ebooks from other ebookstores). Instead they’ll allow for unsecured PDF support, just like their current unsecured Mobipocket support.
  • Something great nobody sees coming: I really hope this happens. If Amazon has a feature that’s not driven by the feedback from Kindle 1.0, it’ll show that they’re thinking with Apple-like innovation. Making jaws drop will accelerate the coming of the Great eReader Adoption, and that will spell great things for the epublishing industry.

Kindle 2.0 WON’T have:

  • Secure PDF support: Why won’t Amazon let you read secure PDFs? It would open the door for a universal ebook format to emerge, and Amazon wants to use its proprietary store as leverage to sell more Kindles. They might decide to let up on the formatting and rely on their exclusive book deals for leverage, but I’m not holding my breath.
  • The ability to borrow library ebooks: Without the ability to read any secure format that’s not the Amazon proprietary, Kindlers still won’t be able to read borrowed ebooks. It’s a shame, and the chief reason I didn’t buy a Kindle.
  • A color display: Despite what the expert I mocked here said, I doubt this will happen. The way E-Ink works is essentially by suspending magentic pigments in fluid between a screen and a magnet; black pigment gets pushed to the screen, white pigment gets pulled to the magnet, thousands of tiny times, and words form. The first generation of color eInk will be expensive, underwhelming, and would reduce the crispness and possibly the contrast ratio of the display. I think Amazon is more likely to stay conservative and aim for a really sharp black and white display, rather than a muddy color prototype. Look for color E-Ink from underdog ereader makers looking for a way to make a splash.
  • A touchscreen or an integrated light: The Sony Reader PRS-700 has these, and it had to sacrifice contrast ratio and glare reduction to get them. I think Amazon will go the other way and sacrifice a good interface for readability. I hope someday somebody does both.

That’s about it. I’ll grade myself on these predictions, and post about what Kindle 2.0 says for the future of epublishing after the announcement (hopefully) next week.

UPDATE: After the conversation on this post, I’m adding ePub support to the won’t have column, for pretty much the same reasons as the PDF. ePub support will let Kindlers buy non-Amazon books, and I’ll be surprised to see that functionality in this iteration of the Kindle.

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